Cataclysmic George

I was invited to make a presentation in a debate on Scottish Independence and its implications for the British Isles at Tallinn University last Wednesday evening (April 30th). I'm not going to publish my presentation in its entirety as that is a wee bit too much for one sitting but if you will permit me to I'll address some subjects over the next few days.

Here's the first bit from Tallinn.

Let’s consider George Robertson, SecGen of NATO from 1999 to 2004. In a remarkable speech to the Brookings Institution in Washington DC delivered on April 8^th this year he contended that:

The loudest cheers for the breakup of Britain would be from our adversaries and from our enemies. For the second military power in the West to shatter this year would be cataclysmic in geopolitical terms.

He then goes on to talk about forces of darkness and other such abstract concepts straight out of the playbook favoured by George W. Bush and his loyal servant, Tony Blair.

But let’s look beyond the bluster a little bit.

Now, I’m not going to criticise the UK armed forces in themselves as they are some of the best examples of fighting men and women and equipment anywhere on the face of the earth and a sizeable contingent of that is drawn from Scottish participation and industry. However I am going to criticise the Ministry of Defence and with very good reason.

Which maritime "power" of the north-western European fringe has, 1. scrapped its aircraft carriers with all attendant ability to project air power transnationally, 2. withdrawn cover of meaningful surface vessels to the far southern fringe of its own territory, 3. downsized its early warning capabilities to the extent that it required warning by Twitter that a Russian capital ship was nearing its northern approaches and 4. scrapped all maritime reconnaissance aircraft?

Let's be clear for the sake of Lord Robertson that this is, in fact, the UK.

Now, on the other hand, which government’s white paper sets out a defence policy that would ensure the gaps above are substantially filled with a meaningful surface fleet such as offshore patrol vessels and frigates (page 239) plus reestablishment of an airborne maritime patrol capability (page 242)?

Again for the sake of Lord Robertson that would be the Scottish Government's white paper "Scotland's Future."

It strikes me, as I stand here a mere 200km from the Russian border, that the joined up defence policy belongs to those who would propose to patrol and defend their portion of the North Atlantic (the NA part of NATO milord) as opposed to those who ignore a great part of their Treaty obligations (the T in NATO to be clear) by putting cost-cutting contingencies ahead of their obligations to their partners in the Organisation (and that's the O).

Scottish independence and subsequent enactment of the provisions of the white paper's defence policy will clearly and actively head off the impending cataclysm caused by the UK government's own - don't laugh! - "strategic" defence planning. Strategic defence planning… hmmm.

The stark truth is that creaky old Britannia does NOT rule the waves any longer and successive UK governments have shaped a defence policy that is counter-intuitive to the needs of NATO and hopelessly inadequate for our geographical and geopolitical realities.

In the case of that Russian capital ship, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, approaching the waters of the Moray Firth the response was to send HMS Defender to shadow the intruder. Defender was dispatched from Portsmouth. To give this room some sense of context that is the seagoing equivalent distance of Tallinn to Hamburg.

Tallinn to Hamburg for God’s sake! How would the good people of Estonia feel if their maritime security would only be guaranteed by vessels which had to sail from Hamburg to investigate any incident?

And it’s not just naval shortcomings. As of this spring that Central European powerhouse the Swiss army overtook the British army in the number of battle tanks that it can field. Or more accurately the British effort contracted due to MoD spending cuts.

September 18 will be the day that Scotland can resolve to avert the cataclysm and not add to it.

That’s the same George Robertson who turned round and argued, on April 17^th with a straight face and no sense of irony that the recent troubles in Ukraine and Crimea should not be a bar against Russian membership of NATO. Russia? In NATO? Really? I am quite prepared to bet that more than one or two people here this evening are rather disturbed by that notion.

As a footnote to George Robertson’s cataclysmic speech, it was self-evident that it was couched in terms to appeal to an American audience as well that in the UK. Exactly NONE of the mainstream US dailies reported the story at all – New York Times, Daily News, Washington Post, New York Post, LA Times, USA Today, Chicago Tribune, Boston Herald. None of them.

Seems that the US mass media can see right through George and the drivel he peddles.

When is Spring Not Spring?

This morning my 7-year old daughter told me that spring starts tomorrow. Is that so? Is March 1st the beginning of spring?

In the UK we regard spring as having arrived when we see a crocus or two in the garden and we can be sure that the winter weather is gone.

In Estonia it appears to be a state of mind that screams, "snow, please go away," as if merely wishing for spring will magically usher the season in. The entire country is still blanketed in the white stuff and yesterday it snowed steadily all day.

The reality I think is that by declaring spring to have arrived whilst the snow still lies thick is to stick two fingers up to the weather gods and declare, "Do your worst! We shall not be moved!"

I do not share this opinion and earnestly pray for warmer climes to relieve my aching knees, toes and fingers.

And what will my daughter be doing at school on this, the last day before spring? Why, she will be going cross-country skiing of course - one of the many spring sports on offer in Tallinn.

Of course there are others less fortunate. I once heard the climate of Winnipeg described as eight months winter and four months bad skating weather! There but for the grace of God and all that......

Politics-Free Friday Please!

The election campaign is cranking up the heat as we enter the final few days of mud-slinging. The 2007 Estonian Parliamentary Elections will be held on Sunday March 4th and thank God for that!

Since the 1st of January every media outlet has been swamping the populace with political promise after political promise - frankly everyone is heartsick of the whole thing, not least because of the remarkably low quality of the messages on offer.

The Reform Party, a conservative grouping, has the simplest message - Lower Taxes for a Richer Population. Reform has championed tax cuts for years - they were the party which boldly promised and then introduced 0% Corporate Tax. The main thrust is a flat rate of income tax set at 18%, down from 22%, giving all taxpayer a higher disposable income. There slogan relating to that has been Tax-Free Friday which has been communicated well by adverts.

The Centre Party uses the populist Higher Salaries - Richer Nation. Higher salaries might indeed make the nation richer but where will the money come from? This has not been revealed yet and the Western European salary levels being touted will certainly have to be met by somebody, somewhere! This is a brilliant policy which would undoubtedly bankrupt the Estonian state in double quick time if it were not for the fact that party leader Edgar Savisaar is the éminence grise of the nation - no person with the ability to count to 100, even with the use of Cuisenaire rods, would trust his economic policies let alone any other of his ideas. The Centre Party is the largest party for two reasons:

1. The conservative vote is splintered among two parties which occupy the same ground,
2. Cuisenaire rods are virtually unheard of in Estonia.

The Centrists have jumped on the Tax-Free Friday message by releasing their own TV ads showing all manner of public services - schools, hospitals etc. - closed on Friday because of lack of funds to pay for their opening. Wonderful stuff when one considers that the Centrists have singularly failed to explain where their magical budget will come from!

Fatherland & Res Publica is another conservative party - at least they removed one conservative grouping when they merged. If there was any sense they would also merge with Reform and in so doing eclipse the Centre Party's position.

The SDs managed to conspire to elect their man as President last year and that was a good job well done. Toomas Hendrik Ilves is a clever and personable statesman who does his country no harm on the international stage whatsoever. Unfortunately the SDs seem to have run out of steam and they are in serious danger of missing out on parliament if they fail to reach the 5% voting share necessary to ensure representation.

The Greens look likely to have something to say about the destination of the Prime Minister's job with a steady 10%+ in the polls and about time too! Green issues have been a consolatory sweetener in the past and although large strides have been made since the "yellow air" over Tallinn of the early 90s there is still a long way to go.

And that's about it really.

Except that the first three named parties have been sneaking into our living rooms every evening by sponsoring prime-time TV offerings! Yes that's right.

Can you imagine this in Britain? "That was the News at Ten. Now we have Lethal Weapon sponsored by the Labour Party." Or how about this? "It's time for Match of the Day brought to you by David Cameron and the Conservative Party." We just wouldn't let it happen!

It is a really insidious way of getting the message across and leaves a nasty taste in the mouth. But then again that's Estonian politics for you!

It's My Party & I'll Miss It If I Want To

My birthday comes around once again on Friday. A couple of weeks ago my wife asked me what I would like for a present. My honest answer was, "No party please."

I left it at that and assumed that I would be spared the inconvenience of having to decant various inebriated souls from my apartment in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Wrong!

"But people want to come and give you their good wishes." Yes that's right.

More like the usual suspects are looking for an excuse for a booze-up and a nosh-up - well the missus does normally put on a good spread and I think that it is ignorant to let the slosh run out.

Ah well, that's my birthday wish gone for a burton!