Phil Lawrence, Tallinn, 13th February 2014
So it’s official. All the Queen’s horses and all the Queen’s
men have decided that Humpty Dumpty (AKA Oor Eck) should have a great fall
and unlike in the nursery rhyme they will be the perpetrators, not those
rushing to the aid of the afflicted. Gideon, Edward and Danny have closed ranks
and decided that we are not worthy of continued use of our own currency.
Giddy George delivered his message today with relish and a
self-satisfied smirk as his blood brothers from the other Unionist parties
regurgitated potted versions on his theme.
Barely had the hot air subsided when no less a figure than the
Research Director of the esteemed Adam Smith Institute, Sam Bowman, was waxing
lyrical on the benefits of using the currency without formal agreement pointing
out that, “An independent Scotland that used the pound as its
base currency without the English government’s permission, with banks
continuing to issue notes privately and private citizens free to choose any
currency they wanted, would probably have a more stable financial system and
economy than England itself.”
Bowman then noted, “It’s up to Scots to
decide whether they want independence, but the Chancellor’s announcement today
should be seen as a feature, not a bug.”
What? Wow! That wasn’t in the script! Who are
these upstart Adam Smith chappies? Well they just happen to be the Libertarian
think tank that largely sculpted a great deal of Thatcherism, especially in
privatization policy, and a big chunk of Tony Blair’s populism. OK, that’s not
the best recommendation north of the border but if one thing’s for sure it’s
that the Adam Smith Institute knows what will fly and what won’t.
So we should have the pound without the benefit
of policy input. It’s the same way that some Latin American countries use the US
dollar and a number of European states outside the EU have adopted the euro.
This is a good option for any country looking for short- to
medium-term stability WITHOUT having to spend in shoring up the value of the
currency. If there is a run on sterling – and there will be – then Scotland can
detach itself without drama or fanfare and then our commodity-backed currency
(Scottish Crown, Merk, Pound or whatever) will find its own par at the
inevitable higher level. Look out NOK!
I just always saw the currency union as a bit like Devo-Max –
a halfway house measure that was neither fish nor fowl. I'm not unhappy to see
it being undermined but I suspect that this may have been the idea all along...
You have to smoke out the objections as early as possible.
Along the way several major Yes policy announcements have
stunk to high heaven from my standpoint but they have been seen to be tactical
markers thrown down that Project Fear should skip around. Of course they don’t
do that and just steam right through the middle thereby proving that Bitter the
Gither is completely reactive with not one proactive notion in their combined
head. They don’t predict, they only lash out. They don’t get subtlety and can
only bludgeon. That’s ideal for Yes as they can set the agenda.
Even subliminally?
Consider this. It is only in recent weeks that the Yes
campaign has ramped up currency union as probably the prime issue. Was this all
about timing? Was this designed to get the Unionists fixated on the Sterling
Zone and cause them to shoot their bolt? Alex Salmond is not just the best
parliamentary debater alive in the entire UK today, he is probably the
best long-term strategist as well.
The more I think about it the more I hear the playground
chant, “You fell for it! You fell for it!” Did Gideon et al fall for it? I’m
inclined to suggest that this may be the case.
In some more smoke and mirrors I also can imagine that what
we saw today was pounced upon by the Unionists for another altogether different
purpose. I smell a rat and his name is Nigel. This is not just all about Scotland.
The Establishment is closing ranks to save their skins in England. This is
designed to appeal to Middle England as UKIP look likely to win the Euro
elections in 3 months time. It seems directed at one audience but resonates
with another. Tactically, at face value it might be regarded by some as smart.
Strategically it is a disaster.
Am I giving Oor Eck too much credit? Did the stars just
align themselves all on their own? Or was there a wee boost somewhere?
So at the end of today where do we stand? The Unionists have
probably been enticed to blink way, way, way too early with the Adam Smith
Institute – one of the leading free market research establishments on the
planet – patting Scotland on the back. Add to that the previously stated view
of the US Federal Reserve on “borrowing” a currency being that we will, “consequentially have far more prudent and stable financial systems than
if they were part of a formal currency union.”
All in all not too bad when the media
were waiting for Gideon to tap in his open goal. Hmmm, maybe cricket’s his
game. Or maybe he’s a wet bob? (That’s public school jargon for a rower, don’t
you know?)
I am inclined to believe that Eck is less Humpty Dumpty and
more Little Jack Horner – he put in his thumb,
and pulled out a plum!
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All the cloak and dagger stuff in the past 48 hours has made
me think again and again of card-playing analogies. Here’s a few commonly used
terms and how they apply today:
George Osborne – the Dealer (who oddly lays all his own cards
out face-up!!!)
Ed Balls – the perennial Joker
Danny Alexander – the Busted Flush
Perm any 2 from those 3 – a Low Pair
Alex Salmond – Full House
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